Comments on Left Bank Blog: Old 97's Blogging

Joe, Many other people I trust and admire believe...

2006-05-06T13:55:00.000-05:00

Joe, Many other people I trust and admire believe that war with Iran is not going to happen for the reasons you stated and I hope and pray you are all correct. Am I paranoid? Well, it's not paranoia when someone really is following you. Yes, I believe this neo-con cabal is capable of the most foolish and deadly of actions and think they are capable of making decisions that defy all of the logic you and others state. With this gang of theives and killers, our voices are not heard, but I still believe in war protests so they see their opposition wherever they turn. So there is a little optimism, I guess. My name calling a finger pointing is the type of thing Alinsky would find counter-productive, but my disgust has risen beyond the point of no return. Knowing that Bush will not be President in 2008 is my only consolation!

Just to add to that quickly, one quick disclaimer:...

2006-05-04T19:18:00.000-05:00

Just to add to that quickly, one quick disclaimer:

I admit that I am eternally an optimist, someone who assumes that the best will usually come out of most situations, and prone to seeing pessism as useless. My optimism is reinforced daily as I peruse the blogosphere and see left-wing sites go apeshit over the latest "crisis" and declare on a daily basis that the world will soon end. Things are bad now under Bush, but I think we need some perspective.

This can lead to some naivete on my part, seen by the fact that I didn't think Bush would actually be dumb enough to invade Iraq either. So I'll admit that, sadly, I've been wrong before on predicting these matters.

Indeed, there is no reason to trust the administra...

2006-05-04T19:13:00.000-05:00

Indeed, there is no reason to trust the administration.

While I obviously can't prove that war is not on the way, there are numerous factors that cause me to think that the likelihood of limited action like airstrikes is low, and likelihood of all-out is next to zero:

1) There has been no large-scale PR campaign like there was with Iraq to sell a conflict. From late to 2001 all the way up to the invasion in March 2003, Bushies were everywhere lying and telling people that we had to go to war. War talk dominated the news and public discourse. We don't see that today, and without such a campaign of fear-mongering, they won't be able to go to war.

While we used to hear fierce statements about impending war, no we see the US making meager efforts to work through the UN and get some kind of sanctions enforced. Essentially, we've taken the position on Iran that the French and Germans took on Iraq.

2) An all-out invasion can basically be ruled out. We simply don't have the troops to pull it off.

3) That leaves the possibility of airstrikes, which Bush will likely not do for a number of reasons. For one, it is unlikely we could destroy all of their capabilities, so nations like Israel would be vulnerable to a response. (On this note, I've heard the IDF is against a conflict for this reason).

There would also be other ways of Iranian retaliation, most notably in Iraq. If we attacked Iran, the Shiites in Iraq, backed by all of Iran's might, would completely rise up. This would make the situation 100% untenable for the US in Iraq, causing the base of the insurgency to spread from 20% of the population to 80%. In short, we'd basically be driven out of Iraq entirely, probably after seeing hundreds of troops die each day. So attacking Iran would make it impossible for us to have any stake in Iraq, something Bush absolutely does not want.

Think of what Bush wants most in his MidEast policy: oil.

An airstrike on Iran would not only cause oil prices to soar over $100 a barrel, it would also severely damage America's efforts to control the Iraqi oil market.

This, I believe, is why the Bushies aren't gunning for war. They remain a bit ominous in their rhetoric (as in the Bolton thing you reference and the "all options on the table" line), but that's pretty typical.

Joe, I do believe we are heading towards a battle ...

2006-05-04T13:53:00.000-05:00

Joe, I do believe we are heading towards a battle with Iran that could end up with airstrikes. Kucinich asked Bolton if we already had troops in Iran as reported by intelligence, and Bolton has refused to answer. What you are saying is that people like me know darned good and well, for a fact,that this administratin will not start war with Iran but speculate that it is a likely scenario out of paranoia or idealizing Seymour Hersh. While I do not have proof or know for a fact that we are likely to srike Iran, you haven't proven that we aren't. This administration's past actions are being repeated and there is no reason to trust them, so why do you know we are not going to war with Iran?

Gee, I would imagine that Novak would be against a...

2006-05-03T08:42:00.000-05:00

Gee, I would imagine that Novak would be against a Mormon running for president, too, since his candidacy is clearly a tool of this country's war on traditional Christianity.